The following analysis and commentary comes from David Gibson at Macquarie Capital Securities (Japan) Limited...
- has downgraded Nintendo stock to "underperform"
- "increasingly problematic structural problems for the company."
- target price of ¥10,000
- "if Nintendo went iOS/Android with games we think the stock could be worth ¥20,000+, but in our view that's not going to happen."
- "competitive position of the WiiU has deteriorated"
- advises avoiding Nintendo stock until E3.
Gibson outlined three potentially big problems for Nintendo:
- Wii U GPU is less powerful than Xbox360/PS3 according to developers
- iPad with its retina display shows where Apple is taking its 4 screen infrastructure, leaving Wii U less connected and less relevant
- Wii U will have 1-year window to gain installed base before PS4 (Orbis) and then Xbox Durango launch in late 2013. At that point, the core gamer that Nintendo is after for the first time will have no interest in Wii U. We understand that Activision has no plans to support Wii U, which means the biggest selling title of Call of Duty will be missing; Konami is also planning minimal support.
I don't know where these comments about Activision are coming from. Last we heard, the company had plays to support Wii U. Let's hope this analyst is just being fed incorrect info.