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GN Podcast #470

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Pachter - No one will support Wii U, Nintendo to become irrelevant, Call of Duty a failure

The following comments come from Michael Pachter...

On future Wii U support...

“I think you're going to see now with the Wii U, notwithstanding its early launch support, nobody's going to support it. I don't think we're going to see every game on the Wii U next year. I think when next-gen consoles come out they're going to be better than the Wii U. Call of Duty is amazing on the Wii U this year. The problem with playing Call of Duty online is it's a community and if there's only four people playing it on the Wii U it's no fun. Nobody in their right mind would buy a Wii U and say 'I'm going to play Call of Duty.' That's like saying 'I gave up Facebook, and it's Google+ now'.”

On Call of Duty...

“Call of Duty, I'm calling it a failure. I know the game sells billions of dollars. Activision did a bad thing with Call of Duty from a profit perspective. They trained gamers that you can buy a game and play it all year, ten hours a week, forever, and you never have to pay again. You just wait for the next Call of Duty. I promise you there are plenty of people, numbering in the millions, who play one game, which is Call of Duty, and they never stop. That's just like the people who play World of Warcraft and never stop, yet the World of Warcraft guys are paying $180 a year, and the Call of Duty guys are paying $60. So who's got a better model? This multiplayer thing being free was a mistake. I don't think anybody ever envisioned it would be this big. It's a mistake because it keeps those people from buying and playing other games.”

On Nintendo stock and Nintendo becoming irrelevant...

“Nintendo's trading at about $3 billion of equity value; it was trading at about $80 billion. The market hates business models that start to show losses, and start to fail. Crappy little Riot Games, doing $150 million in revenue and wildly profitable, is worth a buttload more than Zynga, doing $1.1 billion and not making money. I think Nintendo becomes completely irrelevant. They have their niche, Nintendo's first-party content is great content, and hardcore people will keep buying their consoles, but they're not going to only play with Nintendo consoles.”

Full interview here

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60 total comments (View all)
No Avatar
06 Dec 2012 18:59

only a few days to wait for his next spin , between absolute domination and total loss i'm sure he can still come up with different scenario . And weird for him to talk about zynga since like FACEBOOK , it's the same downward spiral for the shareholders only it only took a few MONTHS
No Avatar
06 Dec 2012 19:48

How does a guy, who's suppose to be an investment analyst, not understand the basic tenant of investing: Strike while the iron is hot. Make the most money when you can while you can. It's a model the movie industry uses (think of the Saw franchise).

Yes, CoD can't keep this momentum forever. Activision knows that. That's why it's cramming as many CoDs as possible before the fad ends (think Guitar Hero). Comparing MMOs and FPS audience is also a bit stupid. That would be like saying that romantic comedies need to aspire to be like action films. They are completely different target markets and need different types of strategies to hold those markets.

As for Wii U not being supported, that remains to be seen. Too early to tell or even make an assessment. Of course, being ignorant hasn't stopped Pacther from commenting before...
User avatar
06 Dec 2012 19:51

I thought Nintendo had massive amounts of cash and assets on hand so that even if their next 2 systems completely bombed they'd still be in business? At least that's what I heard a few years back. Yeah Nintendo sure is doomed. Game Gear was going to mop the floor with Game Boy too right? Look how well that went. N64 sure put them out of business. Gamecube too. And the Wii was a total failure right? Nice trolling job Pachter. Hope your stay under the bridge is comfortable.
User avatar
06 Dec 2012 20:50

Oh yes. He's trolling on purpose.

You know what they say not to do to trolls.
User avatar
06 Dec 2012 21:56

I don't think he's wrong about 3rd party support for Wii U. It will be just as bad if not worse than last generation. Wii U will still be worth owning for Nintendo's games but it's not the system to own if you want 3rd party titles.
User avatar
06 Dec 2012 22:05

I've translated the entire quote to mean the opposite of what Pachter said. I still don't agree with all of it, but I find the statement to be much more accurate now than it was before..

On future Wii U support...

“I think you're going to see now with the Wii U, including its early launch support, everybody's going to support it. I think we're going to see every game on the Wii U next year. I think when next-gen consoles come out they're going to be worse than the Wii U. Call of Duty is horrible on the Wii U this year. The advantage with playing Call of Duty online is it's a community and if there's only four thousand people playing it on the Wii U it's still fun. Everybody in their right mind would buy a Wii U and say 'I'm going to play Call of Duty.' That's like saying 'I gave up Google+, and it's Facebook now'.”

On Call of Duty...

“Call of Duty, I'm calling it a success. I know the game sells billions of dollars. Activision did a good thing with Call of Duty from a profit perspective. They trained gamers that you can buy a game and play it all year, ten hours a week, forever, and you have to pay again the next year for the next game. You just wait for the next Call of Duty. I promise you there are plenty of people, numbering in the thousands, who play one game, which is Call of Duty, and they never stop. That's not like the people who play World of Warcraft and never stop, yet the World of Warcraft guys are paying $180 a year, and the Call of Duty guys are paying $60 plus a season pass, plus DLC, special editions, etc. etc. So who's got a better model? This multiplayer thing being free was genius. I don't think anybody ever envisioned it would be this big. It's genius because it keeps those people from buying and playing other games.”

On Nintendo stock and Nintendo becoming irrelevant...

“Nintendo's trading at about $3 billion of equity value; it was trading at about $80 billion. The market loves business models that start to show losses, and start to succeed. Wonderful little Riot Games, doing $150 million in revenue and wildly profitable, is not worth a buttload more than Zynga, doing $1.1 billion and not making money. I think Nintendo is completely relevant. They have their niche, Nintendo's third-party content is not great content, and hardcore people won't keep buying their consoles, but they're still going to also play with Nintendo consoles.”
User avatar
06 Dec 2012 22:20

Anything that makes a large profit is not a "failure". I don't know where he learned business from but he's doing it wrong. If Call of Duty sells billions of dollars, it is a success in my opinion. I think Black Ops 2 is pretty good. Games like World of Warcraft, that has ~ 10 million active subscriptions, is successful imo, even if these games are becoming less and less innovative over time. They are still raking in the big bucks.

Pachter is just a joy-kill who is looking to rumple everyone's feathers in an attempt to start controversy. It's beyond me that he even has a job at this. When is the last time that he actually correctly predicted anything?
User avatar
06 Dec 2012 22:29

Once we get 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, DKC, Mario Kart, and Smash Bros. on WiiU, sales will go wayyy up.

Also, the WiiU has surpassed expectations. It is blowing away the competition, and the WiiU is doing better than the Wii did.

Right now, Nintendo has the 2 best-selling consoles on the market, like last generation. They're on a path for console generation dominance... again.
No Avatar
06 Dec 2012 23:16

Wow, Patcher really is the king of bad predictions based off of dubious logic. For a guy who's been calling himself a market analyst for so long, you'd think he would not be so disconnected from the consumer. Now, if Nintendo were actually selling so terrible, maybe he'd have a point. But with generally positive feed-back in the blogosphere and the NPD releases posted a bit ago, that does not seem to be the case. Also, Black Ops 2 "a failure"? Now, I don't like Call of Duty at all, but it sold a fucking ton. And it's a failure because it only cost 60$ instead of 180$ over a year? Here's what he's missing: MANY OF THOSE PEOPLE WOULD NOT BUY IT IF IT WERE A 180$ SUBSCRIPTION. This is like when he said the 3DS should have launched for higher.
User avatar
06 Dec 2012 23:21

Oh, yeah, I believe him! Remember when he was right about the 3DS failing?

...Me neither. Why this site even gives him the attention he wants anymore I really don't understand.
User avatar
06 Dec 2012 23:23

Nevermind this loser, Nintendo isn't going nowhere, first thing you know if you know anything about the videogame business is NEVER count Nintendo out. Hell, I know more about the videogame industry and Nintendo than this silly moron, I've been tracking and studying them for close to 25 years, and making predictions with better track records. And I'm just a gamer not a suit monkey with a fancy title. This guy is a joke.
User avatar
06 Dec 2012 23:40

Sort of right, Pachter. Sort of.

Developers will continue to support Wii U. For one, we're uncertain if new consoles will be all that much more powerful or not. There are conflicting reports on the power of the next consoles from Sony and Microsoft- some saying it'll make a huge difference and others saying it won't. For two, you're going to see the same thing with the Wii- as games continue to get more expensive to develop, developers can take chances on the Wii to create new IPs that they're uncertain of doing well. You're going to get well established franchises I think pop up again: Conduit, Red Steel, No More Heroes, and Little King Story. I honestly expect to see indie devs showing up on Wii U and Steam at the same time as well. It's going to be a unique experience just like the Wii was. You may not see GTA or Bioshock- but you'll see a lot of other games coming to the system.

This generation is really new for everyone as it breaks all the models we're used to in gaming so predicting anything for the next year is hard to do. What I think Nintendo is going to do however is reach out to these third parties and attempt to make something happen. Ubisoft has really been on board. EA reportedly helped with online (but because they didn't use Origin in the end, are getting crap ports.) I think Nintendo is going to push exclusive games with cash like Bayonetta 2 and we may see some games from franchises show up that you wouldn't expect.

As for stocks, he is correct. You're not going to see Wii level buying again where stock is always sold out which is going to negatively impact Nintendo stocks. The market has drastically changed since 2006 though and I see the same issues going to affect Sony and Microsoft when they launch new consoles.

Though I fully expect a 3DS kind of reaction in the market: consumers not realizing what the product is, finding out what it is, and eventually purchasing it for themselves or family as games they want are released. I think we'll see less of the older crowd (45+) buying Wii U until the price point comes down to under $250 if they buy it at all. You're going to see the same issues however with Kinect 2.0 and Microsoft's new system. Many of these casual buyers see no reason to upgrade immediately and are not going to be early adopters. As a woman I heard at the store today said "We already have a Wii, why do we need another one?" This mentality will last until families can no longer find new Wii games to play and the price of a Wii U is budget friendly. (This is of course an issue if the 360/PS3 is priced lower and may be why the 360 is selling- but again you will have the same issue with all next gen systems). Families also may become too enthralled with other tech that can also play games to bother including tablets and phones.
User avatar
07 Dec 2012 00:10

It takes a special kind of stupid to be Pachter.
User avatar
07 Dec 2012 00:17

what.... the... hell.. is up with this guy? he's up, he's down. hes positive, hes negative. hes the worst, hes the worst. honestly, pachter.. pack it in, its getting sad.

and honestly.. who plays only one console anymore?
User avatar
07 Dec 2012 01:11

Well, that's good. we can take Pachter as to what might happen. Every time he says something the opposite happens, so we can all rest assured now that the Wii U will be a success. XD Poor Pachter lost his mind -_-
No Avatar
07 Dec 2012 01:14

my question, how the hell did this guy become the official analyst of the game industry...I really feel like he just says whatever he feels like saying at that moment in time
No Avatar
Anonymous
07 Dec 2012 02:27

At the end of the day EA's half assed support is not needed nor wanted.
No Avatar
07 Dec 2012 02:54

Misleading title is misleading. He did not say it in that tone... but whatever. That said, I dunno... he's right about some things. But if there's anything good that comes out of this is that he's spelling doom and gloom for Nintendo which well... you know what that means! :D
User avatar
07 Dec 2012 08:25

RMC you know how to stopped doing scores on reviews??? Yeah lets do that same thing but for Pachter articles. I'm tired of reading articles about him bashing Nintendo.

PLEASE RMC NO MORE PACHTER ARTICLES!!!
User avatar
07 Dec 2012 09:31

Oh, Patcher. Always with your "Nintendo is doomed" predictions...
User avatar
07 Dec 2012 13:53

Pachter is the sore loser who accidentally got Atari as a teen with E.T. cartridge digged from the landfill in Nevada tossed in for good measure, when everyone else was already playing this new wave of superior games on the NES. Thus the bitterness.
User avatar
07 Dec 2012 21:55

Alright, now I don‘t know what the f*** Pachter‘s been smoking, but sure is giving him a lot of hallucinations.
User avatar
08 Dec 2012 16:16

Why is his opinion still considered newsworthy? If I wanted to read someone's ramblings about Nintendo and how they're going to fail, I can go to YouTube. I know Pachter news gets reaction (the equivalent of Mick Foley's cheap pop whenever he mentions the city WWE is performing in), but I'd rather see news about the community, a funny video you make, or anything else for that matter.

If another one of Pachter's predictions never made it to GoNintendo, I wouldn't miss it.
User avatar
08 Dec 2012 17:30

People like patcher exist to skew the minds of gamers and the industry. Won't work with smart gamers.

We know Nintendo has made powerful machines in the past.
N64 was more powerfull than Psone(Psone was the most popular of its generation)
Gamecube was more powerful than PS2(PS2 was the most popular of its generation)
Wii was the least powerfull of its generation(but was the most popular of its generation)

We know Wii and DS were the only ones to go another direction that its competitors.(being less powerful BUT having the innovation of motion controls and other things)
Let me finish. heh.

What I am getting at is this. Nintendo could of made Wii(1) with HD but Nintendo claims they were looking at the penetration of TVs back then and sicne many were WITHOUT HD TV they did not see the point of making a system that would not take advantage of the advanced resolution that HD provides.

On the other hand that seems to have alienated gamers (hardcore so dubbed) as 3rd part DEVELOPERS also alienated it in terms of ..were they going to make engines specifically for Wii that takes advantage of the more powerful Wii over gamecube for every game that they did for the HD twins(360/PS3) Nope.

So Wii suffered because of that and we got PS2 shovelware. and what not.

Ok now they have HD so there is no longer any excuse we should be getting all the same MULTI-PLATFORM releases now that the hardware is more capable with the HD visuals and we won't get watered down crap!

OK here is the main major point what I am getting at....people like Pachter INSULT our intelligence as if we are a bunch of children. I am 32 years old on this planet and an avid gamer and understand things.

Until Pachter grows up -(yes because he acts like he is talking to children - he still does say hello fellow babies right? ha! I stopped watching his piece of sh*t show for a while now sorry) -and starts talking some sense his remarks mean nothing, NOTHING.

Look folks this is how it is...COMPANIES based on current technology make hardware. Companies like Nintendo etc talk to other companies(IBM Intel AMD-ATI,Nvidia) about what specs they want and how they are building that around their system idea as well as their own internal R&D group who I am sure are key in the relations heh.

So ...HD does not belong to any of the three nor does motion sensors or such things(unless they really original invented the tech or added variations such things are not anything to argue about-only that the application of that tech to their games machines ..may be innovative and how it is used)). The idea to include them in a system is that.

So the fact that gamers or pachter sit around and say things like they don't see why anyone would buy a Wii U(which is now HD over Wii1) to play Call of Duty or such games is stupid and a slap in the face to the intelligence of gamers. That anyone would sit there listening to that and believing it or go along with it is really silly and a waste of time frankly. A games machine was made to PLAY GAMES ON(do I need to repeat that slowly so patcher and folks who are like him understand?). Regardless of what company made it. That is its purpose.

I do not need to go list the HARDCORE" games of all Nintendo systems past including Wii and DS? Which would only further shows REALLY HOW STUPID that comment is. lol nevermind the fact that all machines are made to make games for and play games on!!!

Just because it is only now Nintendo have decided to put the HD power in a Wii(and did not with original Wii-which is the reason I ranted above to show why I am leading up to these point) and then he is saying oh people won't buy that on a Wii because...Wii 1 didnt have the power but all the while 360/PS3 did...but people wont go buy a Wii U now to do that...because what they have a 360/PS3 and Xbox720 and PS4 are on the horizon??? is that it??? ....so it's like its seems he is just doing a whole thing AGAINST Nintendo hardware OR an ANTI Nintendo campaign?? The only way to play is 360/PS3/PC? You cant play those games because why its ....Nintendo. I mean he might as well say that and that would be stupid to say LOL

So you see my point. (this really bothers me i don't get the mentality from him or any gamer -why people would think that way)Why is he not saying that about 360/PS3(he should then say people wont buy NON CORE games on those machines lol). Since when did Microsoft and Sony hold a monopoly on a shooter game or "HARDCORE" games?
Hello Goldeneye 64 and Perfect DARK etc etc on N64 TWO CONSOLE GENERATIONS ago!!!(Gamecube also hard core games go figure? So people who want to say what have you done for me lately and forget the past(and the simple fact games machines are to have games made for and played on them-ALL TYPES OF GAMES). Then you do not get it and will be roped into the patcher style mentality or at least his kind of comments will resonate with yours. Which is sad.

Is this really the mentality on the gamers and the industry? If it is can you not see how silly the idea is that you cant FOR some reason play such games on a Nintendo made machine? In general how is it any different than on 360/PS3/PC. Which are machines you can game on? lol

This is why Pachter insults me and you(in my humble opinion) and all gamers when he makes such a remark. and many other remarks he makes.

I think him and his kind are just there to stir things for those who will listen(and actually think the way he does and take note lol) to the nonsense (like this) that he spews. He may be smart and know his stuff but on the other hand the things that he says that WE KNOW are total BS should be acknowledged as such and not be taken seriously AT ALL.

I am done.

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