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Xeodrifter diary #12

GN Podcast #479
 

Pachter - Microsoft/Sony are 'destroying' Nintendo, Iwata oblivious, Reggie is 'phenomenal'

The following comments come from Michael Pachter...

On Nintendo vs. Sony and Microsoft...

“I don’t hate Nintendo, but my job is to help investors make decisions about stocks. Nintendo has ¥8000 in cash per share and the stock trades at ¥9600. It used to trade at ¥63,000. The equity has declined in value by $80 billion. That’s why I’ve been critical. Sony is struggling (relative to last year), with overall sales on its various hardware down almost 20%. Microsoft is doing fine, with software sales hanging in there. Both are destroying Nintendo, which had software sales in November that were 60% of Sony’s and 30% of Microsoft’s.”

On Reggie Fils-Aime...

“He’s excellent at his job (which is primarily marketing and distribution/relationship management), and I think he does a phenomenal job with the cards he has been dealt. He is a first class human being, and I am better for knowing him.”

On Iwata, casual gamers, handhelds and not being hateful...

"Mr. Iwata seems oblivious to the fact that fully half of the historical market for handheld games is a casual consumer, and they are increasingly shifting to mobile and tablet gaming and away from dedicated handheld consoles. The 3DS is a great device, but at the casual end of the spectrum, can’t compete with free-to-play games

The things I say aren’t hateful…I would love for all three platform holders to succeed, as I think it ensures consumers with greater choice; unfortunately, each platform holder has a slightly different strategy, and I don’t think all will succeed to the extent they have in the past.”

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51 total comments (View all)
User avatar
11 Dec 2012 17:57

Will say.... once.... again... Why does anyone even bother listening to this lamebot? If I wanted to hear his type of insight, I'd give myself a double frontal lobotomy, record myself reading from the "everything I say is wrong" book and play it back with an aggressive low pass filter that makes it sound like muffled farts. Then.. maybe.. it would give the same insight, if you just realized it needed to be dumbed down a bit.
No Avatar
11 Dec 2012 18:02

Is that why Sony has a "junk" status?
User avatar
11 Dec 2012 18:06

People sitting and agreeing with what a guy like Pachter has to say, going "You know, he has a good point", honestly need to punch themselves in the face. Hard. Several times.

The dude literally knows nothing about video games, nor the industry, and probably has never really, truly sat and played a video game a single time in his life. His opinions mean literally nothing, all he does is predict market figures, just like every other financial "guru" out there. He has zero background in the games' industry, and he only got "internet famous" because of Game Trailers. God only knows why they decided to give him exposure. And lord only knows why RMC seems to think that Pachter's nonsense needs to be posted on GoNintendo every single week either....
User avatar
11 Dec 2012 18:15

Unlike Pachter, Iwata cares about money AND the integrity that has made Nintendo such a trusted brand. The decisions Nintendo is making may be to the temporary detriment of stock value, but I think Nintendo is very aware that they are defining what videogames will be like in the future. No other company has as much integrity in that regard. Nintendo is a long-term survivor and I think they are making decisions that will be good for Nintendo and for the entire industry in the long term. People like Pachter only really care about the next quarterly results. Nintendo is interested in fostering a game industry that continually offers new experiences and that will be sustainable in the long-term. Free To Play isn't really free - it's a total rip-off most of the time, and it preys on human nature in the same way that casinos prey on compulsive gamblers. And very few mobile games have the polish that every Nintendo title has. Nintendo wants to increase its own wealth, sure – but I think they are committed to doing that by honest means. That is to say, by creating quality products and charging a reasonable price, rather than by throwing together products to chase trends and then fleecing consumers by offering them as free to play (but charging for a million DLC items where the price paid has no relationship whatsoever to actual value.) They are giving into investor pressure a bit with some DLC experiments, but they are being very careful to limit how much extra paid DLC they squeeze out of their loyal customers.
User avatar
11 Dec 2012 18:28

What in the hell do you put on your application before being hired as an analyst? I mean, is it just a blank piece of copy paper with ''NINTENDO SUCKS'' in big bold letters?
No Avatar
11 Dec 2012 18:35

The only sane things he says here is that Reggie is good at his job (honestly, I don't get why people bitch about him). Other than that, just more bullshit from Pachter
User avatar
11 Dec 2012 18:47

LegendofSantiago wrote:How many times do i need to whip this out?
Image


None. None times.
No Avatar
11 Dec 2012 18:50

Pachter is a liar, a troll, and a disgusting little man. He constantly makes idiotic and hateful statements about nintendo.

He's been hired for this purpose. Only dumb kids would ever support a single thing this guy says.

Show me another analyst. Why is there ONE GUY that gets this much troll coverage? Hmmmmm? Show me just one other analyst getting attention....there are none.

This moron is a propagandist. Screw you pachter, you are a scumbag.
No Avatar
11 Dec 2012 18:55

Liars always attempt to appear like they arent trying to be "hateful". Clearly, they are.

Im sick of hearing about ipads and phones destroying the 3DS. Its a fake argument. Nintendo has a fan base, and they show up for nintendo games.

If i want to play quick free games on my ipad, that is fine and that can co-exist with my dedicated nintendo handheld.

Idiots like pachter always bring up strawman arguments, and it influences the impressionable kiddies into thinking they have an "intelligent" opinion, when really they are just parrots parroting a liar.
No Avatar
11 Dec 2012 19:35

patcher die


He blatently lied about the hardware and software
No Avatar
11 Dec 2012 19:41

Moronic

Share value is a measure more of the share market’s beliefs than of actual value. We know fully well that the market is retarded and more or less completely decorrelated from actual performance. Nintendo’s posted a single loss in 30 years of public trading. A single loss. And with a very credible plan to return to profitability. They’re sitting on billions in cash with virtually nothing tied up, and only have 5000 mouths to feeds. Consider for a moment, that Sony has posted 4 years of straight losses (and the scales have been on the rise), has no real public strategy for turning it around save for focusing on all the business groups losing the most money, has 10X the net assets but less than 2X the net equity (indicating a lot of debts and a lot tied up), and has to maintain more than 30X the employees. Put simply, Patcher’s advising investors and he sees nothing but negative for Nintendo, which, given the general malaise surrounding them, may seem reasonable, but the funny thing is Nintendo’s sharevalue is so low it’s barely more than their book value. Sony is of course trading even lower (its outlook is clearly very negative for anything in the nearterm), but Nintendo can barely trade any lower. The market is being ridiculous. And it’s certainly not Iwata’s job to improve the share value; it is of course to make money, for which he has an unparallelled track record and is clearly better positioned to do than either of their competitors’ game groups. Not that it matters; Iwata’s position is secured, as Nintendo’s shares are majorly owned by a private owner – former company head Yamauchi, who appointed and believes in Iwata.

As to the talk of the casual market, the point is clearly ridiculous. There’s absolutely no evidence that the market has magically ‘migrated’. That mothers, grandparents, adults and children will simply refuse to buy consoles because they’re all tooled up with $400 phones with contracts and $500 tablets. The lack of domination of newgrounds speaks of this. The flourishing of the DS and PSP in the face of the Japanese mobile games scene speaks of this. The ongoing sales of the 3DS and Pokemon speaks of this. Not that it matters. The sustainability of these new markets is completely untested. Zynga’s already proving that the facebook market is untennable – that’s what happens when you have +300 million users and only 4 million paying a few dollars. iOS? 8 billion split between 700,000 apps and counting. Free can’t even compete with free. And Nintendo pulls in more profit on Super Mario 3DS Land than all of Rovio pulls in in profit. Who knows what happens when smartphones aturate. Or when every owner has all the Apps they want. What we do know is that most users are plenty content with simple experiences. If they aren’t demanding continual technical/graphical evolution as on the consoles, and are content with SNES level experiences, then once they’ve had their fill on a device – their goto games, why will they want to keep buying?

As for the high end 3rd parties? Well, they can chase that 4K dream and choose to ignore Nintendo all they want. If there’s one company that can thrive without support it’s Nintendo, proved 6 times in a row, so if they want to limit themselves to $400 million 6 year projects they can, or else they can try hitting a market they ignored at their peril.
No Avatar
11 Dec 2012 19:42

3ds is outpacing the ds in the US, europe, japan and he has the audacity to insult it?

he needs to be fired
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Anonymous
11 Dec 2012 20:19

Funny considering Sony in not only hemorrhaging money, but is now downgraded to junk status.
User avatar
11 Dec 2012 22:27

If you are right 52% of the time, you are wrong 48% of the time.

For reading: http://nintendo.about.com/od/wiiliving/ ... -About.htm
http://mygaming.co.za/news/features/424 ... ffoon.html
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49996613/lsquoMy ... os_Pachter

And my favorite: http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/05 ... y-wedbush/


Mike from Morgantown

(FYI -- Facebook was under $20 a month ago and is at $27 now)
No Avatar
11 Dec 2012 23:00

the future looks bright for nintendo...

pachter is always right.... in reverse... he is the best analyst ever but has a strange mental disease that causes him to say the opposite of everything

he says he doesn't hate nintendo - he does
he says the 3ds isn't doing well - it is
he says Reggie is doing a great job - he no longer is
he says Iwata is clueless - he most certainly is not
he says Nintendo is a bad investment - they are a GREAT investment
he says sony and ms are good - sony is on the verge of collapse, and MS is trying to completely reinvent itself and it isn't going well
No Avatar
11 Dec 2012 23:50

I have a very serious question:

Why doesn't Patcher talk about Sony's PS Vita and how it's bombing at retail? Why isn't he talking about how Kinect sales are rapidly declining and PS Move is pretty much dead? Why isn't he talking about how Playstation's one and only big holiday exclusive, Playstation All-Stars, floundered and flopped at release? Why isn't he talking about how bad Microsoft and Sony are doing, with their worth literally spiraling down (Sony was labeled "junk" status recently and Microsoft has lost massive market share to Apple)?

Why does he keep talking about Nintendo this and Nintendo that? If his job is to help investors decide what to do, he SUCKS at his job if he can't talk about how badly the competition is doing in relationship to much of Nintendo's successes (What's that? Wii U tracking faster than the massively-successful Wii? What's that? The 3DS is printing money and selling almost 7x as much as the PS Vita? What's that? Both those systems aren't costly to make and have been getting profits at retail?)

I seriously don't get Patcher. As a businessman, who would give him the time of day with such bizarrely one-sided, inaccurate, and rather tiresome predictions?

Or maybe I'm being too hard, and he's just upset he claimed "The Walking Dead" had no chance of winning any major awards, only for it to win "Game of the Year" at the VGAs. If anything, I think that tells you he has no idea what gamers, critics, investors, or customers like or want.
User avatar
12 Dec 2012 01:36

Totodile wrote:I really don't like his eyebrows.

agreed. His eyebrows are being destroyed by Miyamoto, and Iwata's eyebrows.
User avatar
12 Dec 2012 02:09

I think his comparison is really stupid, because he's talking about stocks. Microsoft and Sony are electronics companies with lots of products in lots of different fields.

Nintendo is a video game company only.

Plus, he is basing this off of the sales of games. Of course the 360 and PS3 are going to sell more games than the WiiU; only a few million people have the WiiU, and most of it's top tier titles will come out in the subsequent years. You can expect similar issues with the 3rd Xbox and 4th PlayStation, just like the 1st 2 Xbox consoles and the PlayStation 3 had (troubles) early on in their lifespan.
User avatar
12 Dec 2012 02:11

Also, the 3DS' sales are much better than the DS' are.

Seriously, this guy can't seem to comprehend that most people don't see the 3DS as a iPhone as similar products.
User avatar
12 Dec 2012 03:33

I love Michael Pachter. Its almost Pavlovian how Nintendo fans are quick to jump down his throat. He does seem to be wrong 2/3 of the time, but really, does the things he says matter in the least bit? Enough to get the sheer amount of vitriol?

Also: "Sony are DOOOOOOOOMED~~~~~" comments are just as annoying as the "Nintendo are DOOOOOOOOOMED~~~" ones.
User avatar
12 Dec 2012 04:04

Eh, i'm over Pachter. It's always the same old shtick.

He loves to make crazy and baseless predictions with little to no merit or reason beyond them. Just pulling them out deep from within his colon. So here's my prediction for him. Despite all his doom and gloom regarding Nintendo and how they are being destroyed and this and that blah blah blah, I predict Nintendo will still be here in 10 years and still making games and that if any of the major three hardware makers pulls out of the hardware making business, it will be Sony before it's Nintendo. There, now where's my own window corner office, internet show, and seven figure salary?
User avatar
12 Dec 2012 05:18

The only "Oblivious" person in the article is Patcher and the most "Oblivious" company is Wedbush Securities for letting him babble his asinine comments in a public forum.
User avatar
12 Dec 2012 06:00

Sony's the one going out of business. And that's a very good thing.
No Avatar
12 Dec 2012 07:29

Analysts are being paid by companies to push certain stock. This was all discussed extensively back during the Enron scandal when it was revealed that the analysts were also complicit (and not just the management and the auditors). This is what it's all about. I wouldn't quote him, bother with him or anything else. I haven't paid attention to what Pachter said for years now. I just accidentally read this post. People should relax, ignore and move on. He's meaningless... like dirt, garbage...
User avatar
12 Dec 2012 10:24

schopaia wrote:
LegendofSantiago wrote:How many times do i need to whip this out?
Image


None. None times.


I said pretty much the same thing out loud when I saw that.

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