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I actually do expect a 'normal' Direct before E3, and probably very soon at the start of April, I feel. They will of course wanna give ARMS a lot of focus, being their new IP, and I think a Direct would talk a lot about ARMS, and some reminders for Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, some things about the upcoming 3DS Titles (Ever Oasis, Pikmin 3DS), and more footage of Fire Emblem Warriors, Switch and 3DS footage. I'd also expect at least something about Zelda's upcoming DLC, if only just a teaser.
A new Splatoon 2 Trailer would be possible, to keep it's momentum going. A few Third Party games footages and reveals, and then end it with a 'ARMS Testfire' thing in the upcoming weeks.
That'd make for a good Direct without taking away much from E3.