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Analysts share their 2017 outlook for Nintendo, discuss potential Switch success/failure

by rawmeatcowboy
20 December 2016
GN Version 5.0

The following analysis comes from various video game industry specialists. They look at the year ahead and discuss what they see for Nintendo.

Patrick Walker, EEDAR

The Switch will start strong, but slowing third-party support will signal a tough road ahead. The success or failure of the Switch won't be determined on launch day, when Nintendo fan passion, planned Nintendo exclusives, and a reasonable price will drive respectable early sales. It will be determined by the ongoing software sales driven by ongoing third-party support. And this depends on whether gamers decide they need a hybrid handheld/console. At EEDAR, we always begin with the question, "would a gamer want to play this type of game on this platform?" Unfortunately, my prediction is that the mainstream market will choose the power of the console for sedentary experiences and the ubiquity of the smartphone for mobile experiences, leaving a hybrid console/handheld underpowered and caught in the middle.

Piers Harding-Rolls, IHS Markit

In terms of new console launches, while Nintendo's Switch has been met with a lot of positivity, I'm concerned that the device is quite a complex proposition and does not necessarily align with a broad spectrum of use cases. I hope that the marketing messaging overcomes some of the challenges that were present with the Wii U campaign. We are forecasting around 4 million sales next year but that outlook is open to revision following pricing and content announcements. One factor Nintendo does have in its favour is the halo impact of its smartphone strategy, which will have a positive impact on sales.

While there is a general assumption that Switch lessens the chance of a follow up to the 3DS, I think there is still room for a next-gen handheld device as the two product categories remain different in a number of ways. We could find out more about a new Nintendo handheld in 2017.

Dr. Serkan Toto, Kantan Games

I think that 2017 will be the most critical year for Nintendo in a long, long time.

The Switch is a revolution for the company: it's the first time Nintendo disintegrates the home and portable console audience. Nintendo needs to hit all bases with this device, or they will be in limbo for the next few years on the console front.

I think 2017 will also be the first year that we'll see a big hit on mobile by Nintendo. If executed right (full experience, free-to-play, high quality, strong virality), Animal Crossing could already be that title.

My bet is that despite the Switch launch, Nintendo will make more announcements in terms of mobile games and further usage of the IP (especially movies) in 2017.

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