While Nintendo has said that this discussion is rumor and speculation, now another WiiWare dev has come through and told everyone what the real deal is. If WiiWare devs want to make a profit, this is what the sales barriers are.
If game is over 16MB - 6,000 units
If game is under 16MB - 4,000 units
If game is over 16MB - 3,000 units
If game is under 16MB - 2,000 units
Developers have two years to reach that mark, and if they do, the split between devs/Nintendo is 65/35. I guess asking for that many sales over a 2-year timespan really isn’t that much.