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I think they're on the right track right now, especially with how hard the system is to just find in the wild.
Mario Kart is usually a good console mover, which should carry momentum into May, if not all the way through to E3. Between the hopefully exciting announcements and the release of ARMS, that should take it to Splatoon 2. And then we'll have to see what happens from there (based off E3 announcements).
So long as Nintendo's advertising stay on point and public curiosity is piqued, I think the Switch will at least continue to do satisfactory.