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"After all, the change happen several weeks after the controversy."
Like I said above, believing an event is caused by another event just because it happened after it is a logical fallacy known as post hoc ergo propter hoc.
Arguments based on logical fallacies by definition cannot be trusted.
"Just because tweets may not have nothing to do with the boxart doesn't mean it didn't lead up to the reason why the box art change happen."
Sure, it is a possibility that they were related events -- but not all possibilities are equally likely.
Given that there is not much evidence that they were related, it does not strike me as an especially likely possibility.
"For the "dopey Tomodachi thing" I have to ask. If the petition numbers was small"
Size is relative. A few thousand people is still large compared to something like ten.
"They didn't apologize about FF"
Why would Nintendo apologize about FF? They were only months away from announcing two new traditional Metroid games at E3 and giving the people who signed that petition exactly what they wanted.
"If so, then why Nintendo bothered to apologize for the whole "dopey Tomodachi thing"?"
Because there was an observable thousands-strong organized movement against it, whose existence Nintendo explicitly acknowledged.
If those things were the case here, then I would say this is probably a comparable situation, but they are not, so it is probably not.