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I'd actually be surprised it an ARMS characters makes it in. The game has only shifted 1.61m and it came out at a time when people where starving for new games. Don't get me wrong 1.61m is a great number but it's no Splatoon 1 numbers (which was on a system that sold less than the Switch in it's 5 year lifespan). ARMS is by far not the success Nintendo was hoping for. Smash is indeed a great platform to advertise other games, so it is indeed a possibility. I just have my doubt. Besides it really all depends on the roster size, if Nintendo is keeping the majority, then I could see them adding an ARMS character, but if they are drastically reducing the roster, they won't replace a beloved/popular character for an ARMS character.
I actually think an ARMS character DLC is more likely.
But again, it's certainly a possibility. One never knows with Nintendo.