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ARMS, besides Splatoon, is the only other new console IP Nintendo has released since Smash 4 (and for like, a decade basically). Not to mention, we're at a point where basically every major Nintendo character and franchise is represented in Smash. At this point, besides new iterations of characters (like a new FE protagonist, or new starter Pokemon, etc) they have to dig into the secondary and even tertiary characters just to bring something new because Nintendo isn't making enough new characters on their own to pull from. So I think an ARMS rep is pretty likely. Sure 1.61M aren't insane sales, but when you have 50-60+ characters, why turn down one of the few new ones?
It's not so much "Spring Man is replacing Wii Fit Trainer" but "Spring Man is getting in instead of Bandana Dee". They're going to have to make cuts eventually, and new characters are going to replace them regardless of whether people want them to or not.
You either add VERY few/no new characters in the base game, or cut a bunch of them for new ones so new characters can appear. If they couldn't cut anyone (or few) then it would have far less appeal because that's it's biggest draw. Sure it sucks losing some characters, but we also have 50-60+ of them. You're bound to like at least a few of them.