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It’s about as concrete as a timeline between Mario games. Guess we’d have to have a split timeline there too since SMB2 outside of Japan was really Doki Doki Panic.
You're in no position to use silly generalizations about the Mario games in order to mock people who believe in a concrete Zelda timeline, when it's clear that you have only a loose understanding of how the games connect to begin with:
There’s continuity between those groups and that is by design and intended, but in isolation, with zero link (pardon the pun) between Windwaker and Ocarina for example.
Wind Waker makes several references to Ocarina of Time, not the least of which is Ganondorf himself returning. Twilight Princess is directly connected to Ocarina of Time and Majora's by the character 'Hero's Shade' (http://zelda.wikia.com/wiki/Hero%27s_Shade) who is the actual Hero of Time from the two aforementioned games.
And no, the Mario games don't need a split timeline because of SMB2/Doki Doki Panic. 1) Zelda's timeline split has an actual cause rooted in Link's time travel shenanigans, whereas the mainline Mario games do not have Mario traveling through time--ever. And 2), the US SMB2 was released in Japan as Mario USA, effectively rectonning Doki Doki Panic and making SMB2 an official Mario game.