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But getting the Switch port of DQ11 extra attention would benefit Nintendo, same for a potential port of Persona 5. It's not like they only gain from first party sales, and building good relations helps them in the long run too, so of course they want to help the other developers.

I never said it's anyone's fault, but it's still a fact, and Tomb Raider has a relatively small legacy on Nintendo platforms as a result. Besides, look at Final Fantasy for comparison: Nintendo hasn't been getting the main series games since FF7 for the same reason, but they've still been getting lots of excellent spinoffs and side games to make up for it.

There's the actual DLC sales to take into account as well - like you say, many Dragon Quest fans have likely bought Smash already, so that's a lot of people to sell a DQ character to. Lara, with relatively few Nintendo-aligned fans, probably wouldn't sell nearly as much.
And, again, third party characters are a mutual agreement - from Square Enix's perspective, why use Lara when a DQ character would likely be much more profitable for them?