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Last we heard from Nintendo, they believe the Switch is currently in the middle of its lifespan. That would mean we have another 4 to 5 years until a Switch successor gets released, but one analyst feels quite differently.

Piers Harding-Rolls of Ampere Analysis has shared some expectations for hardware from Nintendo, and they think that a Switch successor is coming considerably sooner than 5 years from now.

“Ampere is currently forecasting a next-gen Nintendo device to release in 2024. By the end of that year Switch is predicted to have sold-through 146m units meaning it still has the potential to become the best-selling console ever by the end of its lifetime, selling over 158 million units and overtaking the PlayStation 2.”

[Piers Harding-Rolls of Ampere Analysis]

Along with that, Harding-Rolls said that Ampere is not expecting a ‘Switch Pro’ to be released before a next-gen Nintendo device. That would fly in the face of long-standing rumors, along with expectations from other analysts, but I guess only time will tell which side is right.

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Comments (7)

mereel

12d ago

I agree with this prediction. There is no point in a Switch Pro, and it is way too early for Switch 2.
The chip shortage situation being what it is makes a 2024 (even late 2024) a very reasonable expectation for a Switch successor.


sligeach_eire

12d ago

@mereel

There is a point in a Switch Pro, Nintendo probably wanted to release it last year, but instead had to go with the revised OLED model. By the time it's possible to make the Pro in sufficient quantities after the semiconductor shortage is over, the Switch successor would probably be either ready to launch or not very far from it. Releasing a Switch Pro, only to announce the Switch successor shortly after would anger those people who bought one.


sligeach_eire

12d ago

1 million per cent, it will not be called the "Switch U". 😂

The name was just one of a whole catalogue of mistakes made with the Wii U. The machine was fine, it was the marketing, the whole confusion with Wii was a problem. It looked like the Wii, it used the Wii remotes in its promotion. Nintendo also weren't fully ready for HD development, it was their first foray. Nintendo also had to share its resources with the 3DS which got off to a very rocky start. They could only fully concentrate on one platform.

The Switch benefitted from the merger of Nintendo's handheld and console development teams into one. Wii U was abandoned long before it's last unit was produced. BOTW was the last big title for Wii U, it could have released years beforehand, but was delayed and delayed until Switch was ready. That extra time did it no harm in terms of polishing it into the masterpiece it is. Games that started development on Wii U were quietly moved over to Switch. Nintendo won't ever admit it, but games like Super Mario Odyssey began there. They ported so many games from Wii U to Switch as well. Even sequels like Splatoon 2 and Super Mario Maker 2 owe a lot to their Wii U origins. Or games like Mario Tennis Aces and SSBU are evolved Wii U versions. While Wii U starved, it helped to make Switch thrive. Circumstances will be very different next time new hardware launches.


conangiga

12d ago

Not happening. Even 2025 sounds like a stretch.
Like I said: The 3DS and Wii U taught them to have hard hitters like Mario, Zelda, Splatoon, Mario Kart and Xenoblade in the first few months after a console's release...which they won't have in 2024.


kuribo

12d ago

Yeah 2024 sounds plausible. Switch is going strong. Has a bunch of big titles coming this year and into next year, including a brand new Pokémon main and BOTW2, coupled with a periodic Mario Kart DLC. Switch can maintain momentum into and through 2023 imo.

I could see Nintendo maintaining two generations of systems like PS4/PS5 for a little while with their next system. Mostly because this will be their first new system without a dedicated handheld line to absorb any potential losses.
Especially if the next system is backwards compatible. A year of cross-gen games wouldn’t be a bad thing.


hawk

11d ago

I don't mind waiting a few more years, especially since I just recently upgraded to the OLED model. But I hope it doesn't mean fewer third-party games in the meantime.


streex

11d ago

BOTW 2 launch in 2024 confirmed. 😲

I wonder what that certain super analyst thinks. Probably nintendo will stop making consoles and make games for ouya.