Two analysts offer up wildly different predictions for Switch sales this fiscal year

In the 14+ years I've been running GoNintendo, I don't think I've had a more perfect example of why analysts' predictions should be taken with a grain of salt.

Today we have two different analysts offer predictions for Switch sales this fiscal year. First up is the Ace Economic Research Institute's Hideki Yasuda. Along with some revenue predictions, Yasuda predicts that Nintendo will ship 25 million Switch units and 140 million software units.

Then on the flip-side we have analyst Michael Pachter. He's taking things in the complete opposite direction, saying Nintendo is on-track to sell roughly 8 million Switch units this fiscal year.

These are two analysts who follow the game industry, and they have wildly different predictions. For what it's worth, Nintendo is aiming to sell 20 million units this fiscal year. We'll find out in March who was closer with their estimate.

Categories: Consoles
Tags: switch


Top Rated Comment

The late and not so great Michael Pachter.

Sun Aug 19 18 04:57pm
Rating: 1

Only 8m?

So that's maintaining pace with Q1 at just shy of 2m, assuming Smash and Pokemon completely bomb, and all third party games fail to excite, and ignoring any Xmas deals?

Okay, sure.

Sun Aug 19 18 04:58pm
Rating: 1

Pachter... Pachter never changes.

He did predict the Wii U would sell 30-50 Million, which the system could only dream to sell a fraction of.

8? Like, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8? Or 8,000,000?

I didn't hear the 25 million prediction but I did read earlier about Pachter predicting 8 million. IDK, 8 seems kind of a little low but at the same time, I don't think Nintendo are going to hit their 20 million goal either.

How many do you reckon then?

Sliggy has become a parody of himself at this point. He has to be doing it on purpose for our amusement like a true hero.

The late and not so great Michael Pachter.

I’m confident Nintendo will hit their target. With Smash Bros., Pokemon Let’s Go, and possibly a rerelease of NSMBU all before Christmas, I can see them hitting and exceeding their goal before March 31 2019

Sun Aug 19 18 05:20pm
(Updated 1 time)

I...I mean it might do that with or without NSMBU, that game isn't going to sell units anytime soon, Mario Party has a better chance of selling units, and also that is another game releasing this fall.
AND Fire Emblem might make it before next March.

You just listed 3 upgraded ports. 1 of which is only a rumour. If NSMBU is real, then I don't see much if anything being changed, beyond a bump in resolution or framerate. They'd probably bundle it with NSLU. Another lazy $60 cash grab. Some people think they're done with the Wii U ports. I doubt it, they've clearly shown they have no shame. There could well be more Wii U Mario games after that, Paper Mario: Colour Splash, SM3DW and Super Mario Maker. And that's just Mario.

The one thing that they could do for NSMBU is add online multiplayer to it, or at least try to do so. I'm not sure how smooth it would be, and lag would definitely be an issue for completing some levels.

But, maybe that'll be part of their online strategy to get more people to sign up by releasing more games with actual online multiplayer through the holidays, even if they are ports? And, considering the Wii U didn't sell that well, I can see the port happening for NSMBU.

Maybe they'll do a NSMBU Switch bundle for the holidays?

As for a SM3DW port, I loved it on the Wii U, and I do hope more people get the chance to play it, even if that means a port. I do hope they figure out the pricing though, because I'm not a fan for paying $60 for ports of games I already own, and haven't done so yet.

Dude, if you still think Smash is a port, there’s no hope for you at all.

How many times do I have to say this? Smash Bros. Ultimate on Switch is an upgraded port of their previous work. It's added some new content but it is not a brand new game.

If Nintendo had added 8 new tracks along with the fixed multiplayer, added a few more characters than they did to the port of MK8 for Switch, would it then have been alright for them to call it Mario Kart Ultimate? Super Smash Bros. on Wii U provides the base of Ultimate and much of its content. If you can't see that, there's no hope for you at all.

MK8 is literally the same game with a reworked battle mode. Smash Bros Ultimate is a complete overhaul. A massive roster with new and returning characters, new modes, a noticeable graphical boost, new and returning stages (possibly the most stages ever in a fighting game,) reworked mechanics, more items, etc.
Calling it a port is just foolhardy.

Mon Aug 20 18 09:08am
Rating: 3

There's a huge difference between new characters for a racing game and new characters for a fighting game. Also, Mario Kart 8 didn't rework the other character from the ground up with new attack animations, taunts, hitboxes, models, voices (in some cases), recolors/costumes. Calling smash ultimate a port is practically just a meme at this point. Yeah. they're building off of Wii U, but that doesn't just make it a port or even an upgraded port. That's like calling Kirby Planet Robobot a port of Triple Deluxe or Majora's Mask a port of OOT.

Pokemon Lets Go is an “upgraded port”?! LOL you’ve gone and lost it now. Never go full Sliggy.

It’s based on Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow but to call it an “upgraded port” is laughable.

Sure the Peter Jackson Lord of the Rings trilogy is just an “upgraded port” of the 1978 animated Lord of the Rings movie.

There could well be more Wii U Mario games after that, Paper Mario: Colour Splash, SM3DW and Super Mario Maker. And that's just Mario.

I really hope you’re right. We all weren’t blessed with buying over 100 Wii U games.

Mon Aug 20 18 09:41am
Rating: 1

What the hell is wrong with you? Smash is not a port. Neither is Pokemon. Are you blind? I guess, rudy was right, "truth, isn't truth."

If Let's Go was a port then it wouldn't suck as hard as it seems like it will due to all the dumbing down of the difficulty. SSBU's more like if SSB4 jumped from OG SFII to Hyper Street Fighter II. Same core game and not a sequel, but enhanced with new content and pretty much everything in one package. Don't think it's bad in Smash's case at all.

I'd say this is evidence of something but you chose Micheal Patcher, and of course what he says is going to be wrong, he is never right :/

That's an incredibly low estimate. 12 million would be a better low ball estimate.

Heh, so not much unlike flipping a coin... Seems reliable as hell

Wow... and he gets paid to do this?

So he thinks the will only sell 4 millionish bore switch between now and Christmas? Wtf

Uhm.... I truly think this year's Poke games are going to move plenty of units alone. Maybe some bundles for xmas or black Friday.... Oh and the fiscal year ends March, so I am pretty sure there will be some new games the first two-three months of next year ;)

Once smash and Pokemon come out it's gonna get there.

I seriously don't see how Pokemon et's go will NOT sell units.

-The brand alone will sell it. I mean both games and Switches...Since the only platform it will be available on is the Switch.

-They will get some of the PokeGo players in on it, I am sure. Not all of them, of course (that would be insane), but some.

- The casual market will be on this. The ease of controls and looks of the game looks like a big winner.

- Even the core Pokefans will get this since it's Pokemon.

-And it seems like people , like me, who were never much into the games will get this. I have talked with several people about this exact thing.

So 8 mill is far to low. 25 mill, though... Then again, there are penty of games we don't know of yet that will release before March (as I hinted at above), so could happen, bt I doubt it.

*gasp* RMC said You-Know-Who's name!


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