The Switch has been doing extremely well, and it seems like this holiday season will bring in another round of big sales. Just what can we expect in units sold moving forward? Nintendo isn't giving any specifics outside of their usual fiscal year estimates, but analysts are more than happy to spit out some numbers. Here's what Bloomberg has put forth, which compiles numbers from various analyst estimates.
- 9.46 million units of Switch hardware and 64.73 million units of software in the quarter ending December
- software sales may climb about 23%
- many analysts expect the Switch will last long enough to reach the 100 million record set by the Wii
- analysts’ expectations for the fiscal year sit at 308.8 billion yen operating profit and 1.28 trillion yen revenue
- analysts’ estimate 19.07 million units of hardware and 147.43 million units of software for the fiscal year
“This is typically where sales begin to peak out, but it looks like the Switch may have a longer life cycle. With a desktop console and a portable player in a single machine, Nintendo has a very effective platform for selling game software.” - Kazunori Ito, an analyst at Morningstar Investment Services
“It’s a Pokemon title, so unless you are giving up on the franchise, it’s hard to imagine fans not buying it. Pokemon Sword and Shield will probably end up being the single largest game in terms of launch year revenue, probably bigger than Smash Bros..
The focus is the game, not the console itself. 2021 might be an even bigger year for title launches. There is a new Zelda game and it will be time for a mid-cycle refresh for all major Nintendo titles.”- Damian Thong, an analyst at Macquarie Group Ltd.
“The Switch can sell 20 million units annually for the next three years, so it should easily get to 100 million.” - Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities Inc.