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Industry analysts predict Switch to be the best-selling hardware of 2021, once again think Switch Pro is on the way

2021: The year of Nintendo

With 2020 behind us, it's time for analysts to look into their crystal balls and see what the year ahead has. GamesIndustry talked to some of the biggest analysts out there, and all of them see Switch as being the best-selling gaming hardware of 2021. Some also believe that 2021 is the year of the long-rumored Switch Pro. You can see all the Nintendo-related comments from the analysts below.

Mat Piscatella, NPD

Despite the launch of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles, it will be the Nintendo Switch that ends up selling the most units of console hardware in 2021. I will go a step further and suggest this will be driven by content and promotional efforts rather than the release of a new iterative model.

Dr. Serkan Toto, Kantan Games

Switch Pro launches. Yes, I know, I know. I predict a beefed-up 4K device is coming during Nintendo's next financial year. And let it be said: "Switch" is just a word.

Everybody expecting the Switch to run out of steam in 2021 is in for a bitter disappointment. The Switch will be the best-selling console this year as well, driven by more first-party games, a hardware refresh (see above), and the device having developed into a lifestyle product for the mass market over the course of 2020.

Piers Harding-Rolls, Ampere Analysis

I expect Nintendo's Switch family of devices to be the best-selling consoles again in 2021 following a very strong 2020. Last year I was unconvinced there would be a new flagship model Switch in 2020, but it makes more commercial sense to release an updated version in 2021. I currently have an updated version of the Switch in my forecasts for 2021.

Overall, 2021 is going to be a big year for the console sector, with Switch devices expected to sell in large numbers (currently expecting ~24 million) and next-gen consoles fresh to the market (combined sales forecast to hit ~25 million), segment growth will be substantial even against the backdrop of a pandemic-induced recession.

Categories: Top Stories, Consoles
Tags: switch

Comments

Mon Jan 04 21 02:54pm
Rating: 1 (Updated 2 times)

If the analysts think a Switch Pro is coming then it’s not coming.

They don’t really make educated predictions...they, like fans, make wish-lists. At least they all seem to agree the Switch will continue to be a top seller in 2021 - it’ll do that without a hardware revision.

pc
Mon Jan 04 21 03:01pm
(Updated 1 time)

I dunno. I feel like the new XBox and PS5 will have gained enough momentum this year to put a dent in Switch's sales, but after Switch pretty much ruled the roost in 2020 even without much in the way of new first party titles, I wouldn't put another bestselling year past it. Who knows?

The Switch will more than likely break 20 million again in 2021, since sales haven't peaked yet. Sony will at most push 18 million PS5s out of the door. Microsoft is selling less than that short term. So Maths dictates the Switch will sell more again Smile

Saying the Switch will be the best selling console of 2021 is the safest bet possible. Based on product life cycle alone it will.

And if they keep on saying that "this year Nintendo will release a Switch Pro" eventually they'll be right

Technically since they say “hardware refresh” or “updated version” all that needs to happen is for a new colour to release and they could claim they were right Smile

Or even the revision the base Switch's already gotten where the battery is better utilized and lasts longer. That's also an updated version.
Basically if you want to make predictions correctly (or at least not too wrong), be vague and abuse technicalities :P

And that’s why analysts are often just professional BS’ers

So true. But even that is better than Patcher's insane BS that vomits all over the place. I still remember when he said Nintendo wouldn't sell 10 million Switches in the fiscal year without a price cut and they sold that in a quarter.

Mon Jan 04 21 04:01pm
Rating: 2 (Updated 3 times)

If you keep saying it long enough, eventually you will be either correct or there will be a next gen Nintendo console.

There have been "Switch Pro" rumors since before the launch of the original Switch models. That's even before the launch of the "red box" Switch and Switch lite. Sorry, but these "analysts" lost all credibility years ago. Not that they had any to begin with.

And on the subject of a Switch pro actually happening? I don't think so. Nintendo literally can't make enough of these systems to keep them in stock everywhere. Adding a new SKU would only hurt Switch sales overall.
And if it would happen, not before Christmas this year or early 2022. With Breath of the Wild 2 / Metroid Prime 4 / Super Mario Odyssey 2 as a launch game.

Totally agree. They cant keep up with demand as it is. If demand dips then they’ll price cut first. Jumping to a new or upgraded system is quite frankly the last, and most costly, resort.

You have “fans” demanding they need to release a Switch Pro to compete with XBX/PS5 and you can guarantee those same people would be first to complain that they’re being “forced” to buy a new system.

BOTW2 will for sure release on Switch. Metroid Prime 4 has potential to be on the next system depending on how far along it is. Or it’ll be a cross-gen game like BOTW was. Personally that approach with BOTW and Twilight Princess is a good one. Provide a new system seller game but at the same time not burning owners of the previous console. I don’t think MP4 would have the same draw as BOTW but it wouldn’t be a bad thing to have to swan song the Switch and usher in the next system.

I do think a Switch Pro will happen but it won’t be there to easier facilitate PS5/Series X ports. Games will still have to target the base hardware and I really can’t see any publishers willing to make “Pro” exclusive versions of games. It’ll just be what the New 3DS was to the original 3DS and, more pertinently, PS4 Pro/One X to their original counterparts- better running and better looking versions of games that mostly work fine on the older models amongst other welcome improvements to the hardware. There’s definitely a market there for that kind of device, not to mention how many people who already own a Switch would upgrade.

I hope they don’t release another Switch until the chip is powerful enough to run Unreal Engine 5 games... obviously not at the high settings of the PS5 and Series X but competently enough to be playable and look decent like some of the current Switch ports.

Well, they could be. For comparison, the A14 / M1 chip would be powerful enough to handle UE5. But those are exclusive to Apple hardware. But with Nvidia buying ARM, we could see some real improvements on their chips as well.

But I don't expect a really powerful new chip before the eventual "Switch 2"

Well of course it will be the best-selling console this year. How can it not be now that Nintendo dominates the whole of Japanese markets?

So no Switch Pro and the Switch won’t be the best selling console this year. Got it.

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