GoNintendo Podcast: The Last Pokémon Spectacular!

This is something I had posted on the old forums a few years ago and thought it would be fun to update. Also, on a related note, does anyone know the first Podcast that started with reading its Pokémon? It's somewhere between Webisodes 90 and 201, but I couldn't find any copies of that range of Podcasts still on the web.

So, given that every GoNintendo Podcast starts with reading off that Episode's equivalent Pokémon, I thought it would be interesting to see if (and when) the Podcast would ever surpass the number of Pokémon. Since the number of Pokémon obviously increases with every new generation release, we would first need to see if there is any consistent trend for the increase in Pokémon over time, and then try to extrapolate that trend into the future to compare with the (very consistent) GoNintendo Podcast release schedule.

Below is a plot of both; for convenience, I plotted both in terms of the number of days since the Japanese release of Pokémon Red/Green:

As can be seen, the release of new Pokémon is actually fairly consistent over time: each new generation comes at a fairly regular interval, and there is a fairly regular number of new Pokémon for each game. As expected, the GoNintendo Podcast release schedule is also very consistent (one new episode per week). Since the Podcast started after the first Pokémon release, in order for it to overtake the continual increase of new Pokémon, the slope of the calculated trendline for the Podcasts has to be greater (steeper line) than that of the new Pokémon releases, which it is! This means that the two lines will eventually cross if you extrapolate them, after which the Podcasts will no longer have associated Pokémon. When will that be? Well, we just need to set the two equations equal to each other and solve for X with our ever useful algebra skills. So, when will this happen?

Saturday, August 21 2027, Webisode 1149 - After almost exactly 22 years, the Last Pokémon Spectacular! In actuality, this date is very variable, based mostly on the new Pokémon release schedule. For instance, when I calculated this the first time two years ago, the result was: Webisode 1275 on Saturday, January 26, 2030!

Most of the Pokémon variability is due to a large increase in the number of Pokémon all at once whenever a new game releases. For example, if a new game happened to come out just before you were about to run out of Pokémon, it could extend the date by nearly two years (since each game usually has on the order of 100 new Pokémon). Furthermore, it could happen that you actually run out of Pokémon, but not long after a new game is released, which will then extend the amount of Podcasts which have Pokémon! However, as long as the current trends continue in which the GoNintendo Podcast slope is steeper than the Pokémon release slope, there will EVENTUALLY be a point (sometime in the range of 2027 to 2030, plus or minus a few years) that you WILL run out of Pokémon, and that will be a sad day, indeed.

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