Analysts don't expect Switch successor to be as big of a hit as Switch

Well, the Switch was a pretty big hit, after all.

I kinda think they might be right, just because this next console will be an evolution and not a revolution. That said, I highly doubt it's going to be a Wii U type failure. Maybe more along the lines of the success the 3DS had.

The Switch was a runaway hit by putting forward the hybrid concept and basically nailing it on the first try. I too don’t see a way for “Switch 2” to replicate that success entirely.

However, Nintendo clearly has cornered this hybrid market, and seemingly transitioned most of the GameBoy/DS success into Switch player base. If the new console is merely an upgraded Switch, it could still be exactly what tens of millions of players are looking for. Sony has made this approach profitable for decades.

The handheld market has changed drastically since the Switch released. It's no longer novel nor is it unique to Nintendo to be able to play console games on-the-go. PC handhelds are rising faster than ever. The Steam Deck is a clear competitor to Switch, but there are also tons of Windows handhelds like the ROG Ally (which I personally own) that offer even more power than the Deck. Subscription services like Game Pass give you access to hundreds of modern games for a few bucks a month, which for most is a much better deal than paying $60 or $70 for a single game. Hell, even the iPhone is now getting ports of modern console games like Death Stranding, and Resident Evil 4 and Village. Nintendo can claim that their system has ease of access, but Valve can also claim the same with their Deck. While I don't think one single PC handheld will dominate over Nintendo, I think PC handhelds as a group risks encroaching on Nintendo's territory. Nintendo hasn't had such fierce competition in the handheld space...ever. The closest I can think of is with the PSP, but that was one handheld, the PC handheld space is quickly growing fast with various handhelds.

I want Nintendo to succeed, and one major trick up their sleeve is that they have the backing of NVIDIA. This will essentially be NVIDIA's first handheld since the original Switch. None of the PC handhelds have NVIDIA chips in them. And NVIDIA are the kings of efficiency and deep learning. I think Nintendo has the ability to make a cheaper handheld that's just as powerful as the best PC handhelds (thank you DLSS), but with better battery life. But that would still basically be a more powerful Switch. I think Nintendo will have to think outside the box again, because I don't think more power plus Nintendo exclusives will be enough, when other handhelds have similar power. I'm not sure what else they can do, they're in a tough spot, especially if they want to keep their new system around $400 or less. I worry their new system will be another Wii U. They need to do enough to differentiate the new system both from the original Switch and the PC handheld competition, while not being gimmicky. It's a tricky position indeed. But Nintendo has proven in the past that by marching to the beat of their own drum they can come out on top, so I am definitely not counting Nintendo out and I'm looking forward to finally playing Prime 4 on the new system. 😁

They should just keep Switch going like all te other consoles, and then bring out basically an environmental friendly offline Nintendo focussed on the future. Online stuff just isn't future proof..

It could be modular so it can be made to be used with every offline Nintendo game / product ever released. Every part should be easy to diy fix - renew - evt. upgrade even 200 years from now. And then keep the great games made by real humans coming.

Anyway, I guess we'll know eventually what is coming and if it will be a very short succes (like the Switch) or if it can be longer around this time.

Nintendo's "sequel" consoles are never as successful. SNES, GameCube, and Wii U all sold less than NES, N64, and Wii respectively. I chalk that up to Nintendo consoles working up on a tick-tock cycle of "game-changer" and "refinement". The game-changers are what get the headlines and sales and then their follow-ups are more modest affairs that don't change as much and focus more on polishing the concept.

But Gameboy, Gameboy Advance, DS and 3DS were all different levels of successful. I would look to Nintendos handheld console success more than non-handheld consoles when discussing Switch and its potential successor.

This is easy for an analyst to say! It’s more likely to not be one of the best selling consoles of all time than to BE one of the best selling. It doesn’t mean it won’t do good regardless or be a huge hit!

I agree, not as big but close.